General Circulation Models

Numerical models, representing physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface, are the most advanced tools currently available for simulating the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations (criterion 1 -- see list here). While simpler models have also been used to provide globally- or regionally-averaged estimates of the climate response, only GCMs, possibly in conjunction with nested regional models, have the potential to provide geographically and physically consistent estimates of regional climate change which are required in impact analysis, thus fulfilling criterion 2.

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